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Indicator Overview

This indicator is derived from Market Value and Realized Value, which can be defined as:

Market Value: The current price of Bitcoin multiplied by the number of coins in circulation. This is like market cap in traditional markets i.e. share price multiplied by number of shares.

Realized Value: Rather than taking the current price of Bitcoin, Realized Value takes the price of each Bitcoin when it was last moved i.e. the last time it was sent from one wallet to another wallet. It then adds up all those individual prices and takes an average of them. It then multiplies that average price by the total number of coins in circulation.

By subtracting Realized Value from Market Value we calculate Unrealized Profit/Loss.

Unrealized Profit/Loss estimates the total paper profits/losses in Bitcoin held by investors. This is interesting to know but of greater value is identifying how this changes relatively over time.

To do this we can divide Unrealized Profit/Loss by Market Cap. This creates Net Unrealized Profit/Loss, sometimes referred to as NUPL, which is very useful to track investor sentiment over time for Bitcoin.

Relative Unrealised Profit/Loss is another name used for this analysis.

How To View The Chart

The key principle of this tool is in the ratio between market cap and Bitcoin investors taking profit.

When market cap rises much faster than profit taking we see that the market is overheating, one could say due to investor greed (red band). For the strategic investor such times have historically been favourable to take profit.

We can break down different percentages of Bitcoin Relative Unrealized Profit/Loss to determine what stage of the market we are in. This can be advantageous for the long term strategic investor.

Bitcoin Price Prediction Using This Tool

Net Unrealised Profit/Loss (NUPL) is able to use market participant data to help predict Bitcoin price reaching major highs or lows. It uses on-chain data to demonstrate potential market participant emotions at a given moment in time which can be useful for forecasting Bitcoin price and where it may move next over time.

Created By

Tamas Blummer, Tuur Demeester and Michiel Lescrauwaet

Date Created

February 2019

Fall Further Down The Rabbit Hole

Here is the original publication by the team at Adamant Capital: A primer on bitcoin investor sentiment and changes in saving behaviour

Similar Live Charts That You May Find Useful

Another live chart that uses Realised value data is MVRV Z-Score.

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This chart is part of the On-Chain Introduction Collection, tailored for those new to Bitcoin on-chain analytics who want to learn about key metrics.

You can explore and learn about the next chart in the On-Chain Introduction Collection by clicking here.

Indicator Overview

MVRV Z-Score is a bitcoin chart that uses blockchain analysis to identify periods where Bitcoin is extremely over or undervalued relative to its 'fair value'.

It uses three metrics:

1. Market Value (black line): The current price of Bitcoin multiplied by the number of coins in circulation. This is like market cap in traditional markets i.e. share price multiplied by number of shares.

2. Realised Value (blue line): Rather than taking the current price of Bitcoin, Realised Value takes the price of each Bitcoin when it was last moved i.e. the last time it was sent from one wallet to another wallet. It then adds up all those individual prices and takes an average of them. It then multiplies that average price by the total number of coins in circulation.

In doing so, it strips out the short term market sentiment that we have within the Market Value metric. It can therefore be seen as a more 'true' long term measure of Bitcoin value which Market Value moves above and below depending on the market sentiment at the time.

3. Z-score (orange line): A standard deviation test that pulls out the extremes in the data between market value and realised value.

How It Can Be Used

The MVRV Z-score has historically been very effective in identifying periods where market value is moving unusually high above realised value. These periods are highlighted by the z-score (orange line) entering the pink box and indicates the top of market cycles. It has been able to pick the market high of each cycle to within two weeks.

It also shows when market value is far below realised value, highlighted by z-score entering the green box. Buying Bitcoin during these periods has historically produced outsized returns.

Bitcoin Price Prediction Using This Tool

MVRV Z-Score bitcoin chart is useful for predicting Bitcoin price at the extremes of market conditions. It is able to forecast where Bitcoin price may need to pull back when MVRV Z-score enters the upper red band, and also when $BTC price may rally after spending time in the lower green band.

Historically it has picked major Bitcoin price highs to within 2 weeks.

Created By

@aweandwonder who has unfortunately since deleted the original article and his online profile.

He built on the initial work to create MVRV by Murad Mahmudov and David Puell

MVRV (Market Value to Realised Value Ratio)

The MVRV ratio bitcoin tool is also shown on the chart above. See the chart key to select MVRV scores which are represented by the black line on the chart.

This metric takes the ratio between market value and realized value and plots that ratio over time. MVRV was created to show periods of market euphoria when the market value was considerably higher than realized value (the cost basis level for bitcoin purchases). While MVRV does show broad trends of where the price is overbought or oversold, it is less effective than MVRV Z-score for specifically identifying market cycle tops and bottoms.

You can view the MVRV metric on the chart above by selecting ‘MVRV’ on the chart key and de-selecting MVRV Z-Score.

Date Created

November 2018

Fall Further Down The Rabbit Hole

MVRV Medium article

Similar Live Charts That You May Find Useful

The MVRV Z-Score live chart is able to identify when the price of Bitcoin is unsustainably high or low by using the upper red band and the lower green band. Charts on this site that use a similar approach include Puell Multiple, RHODL Ratio and Reserve Risk.

Video Explainer

Click me to watch video!

3b:T2be5,

Bitcoin Price Prediction

A Bitcoin price prediction or Bitcoin price forecast attempts to estimate where the price of BTC may trade in the future using data-driven models, historical price behaviour, and on-chain metrics. Unlike short-term price targets, forecast models aim to provide probabilistic ranges rather than precise predictions.

The tools shown on this page use long-term, model-based approaches rather than short-term technical analysis. These models are designed to help investors understand potential price ranges and market regimes over time, not to predict exact future prices.

These Bitcoin price forecast tools (often referred to as BTC price forecasts) use on-chain and market data to estimate how Bitcoin’s price may evolve over future market cycles.

Are Bitcoin Price Predictions Reliable?

Accurately forecasting the future price of Bitcoin is extremely difficult. Many widely quoted predictions have missed the mark, particularly when based on short-term narratives or fixed price targets.

For this reason, experienced investors tend to rely on probabilistic models and long-term indicators rather than single-number forecasts.

Notable Bitcoin Price Forecasts

Do you want to know what the price of Bitcoin will be in the future? Predicting digital currency prices with real accuracy is extremely difficult and people quoted in the media often miss the mark by a long way. Jon Mcaffee famously expected the price of Bitcoin to reach $500,000 by 2020, which never happened.

On this page we not only share industry expert price predictions, but we also provide you with a free price forecasting tool. So you can decide for yourself how high or how low the price of Bitcoin may go in the future, using actual blockchain data.

Before we explain the $BTC price forecasting tool above, here are some standout btc price predictions for how high Bitcoin could go in the next few years:

Hal Finney price forecast: 1BTC = $10million

One of the most important people involved in the early days of Bitcoin, Hal Finney was the first-ever recipient of bitcoin, receiving 10BTC from Satoshi Nakamoto. In what he described as “an amusing thought experiment” he estimated that if Bitcoin became legal tender and the dominant world payment system, each bitcoin would be worth $10 million.

ARK Invest price forecast: 1BTC = $1million by 2030

Cathie Wood’s investment fund is famous for being early in large technology trends, investing in high growth businesses such as Tesla, as well as being early in the trend among institutions to buy bitcoin. Each year ARK Invest publishes a report on key emerging trends.

In their 2021 report, they forecasted that Bitcoin could exceed $1million by the year 2030.

Bitcoin Price Prediction Chart

So that you can make your own decision about Bitcoin price forecasts, we are sharing the Bitcoin price forecast chart above. It uses a selection of blockchain tools to identify how high or how low Bitcoin could go.

You can see that these tools have been accurate in previous cycles, so the latest data for each of them may give us clues as to how far Bitcoin prices may drop, and how high they may climb.

On the chart, we show you various long-term bitcoin price prediction models which forecast the expected price of bitcoin in the future. Some try to identify the lowest price Bitcoin will be in the future, others try to calculate the all-time-high price Bitcoin will reach.

They all go beyond short-term technical analysis to show where bitcoin btc could go next in its market cycle. Just hover over the lines on the chart to see their $BTCUSD target values.

Below, we explain each of the bitcoin price forecast tools, how they are calculated, and who originally created them.

We hope you find this data useful as it provides a unique and more robust way to see Bitcoin price predictions over time. This data updates daily so you can check back in to see how these Bitcoin price forecast models change over time for the peer-to-peer digital asset.

Indicators Overview

Most of these tools use fundamental data taken from the blockchain. The benefit of this is that it uses the actual behavior of market participants. This is arguably better than people attempting to make forecasts simply off news events such as central banks like the federal reserve changing interest rates at certain moments in time, or fluctuations in the cryptocurrency market.

Therefore, we believe that they can be a more effective type of Bitcoin price prediction.

Delta Top

This indicator uses a combination of on-chain and technical inputs.

First, we need to calculate Delta Cap:

Delta Cap = Realized Cap - Average Cap

Realized Cap is explained on this page that shows MVRV Z-Score, so you can go there to learn about how it is calculated. It is essentially the cost-basis paid for all bitcoins.

Average Cap is explained in the Top Cap section below.

Once Delta Cap is calculated, its values over time are then multiplied by 7. The result is Delta Top.

Top Cap

This indicator uses market cap and price information as inputs. It is therefore not an on-chain indicator, unlike many of the other indicators on this page.

To calculate Top Cap, it is first necessary to calculate Average Cap, which is the cumulative sum of Market Cap divided by the age of the market in days. This creates a constant time-based moving average of market cap.

Once Average cap is calculated, those values are multiplied by 35. The result is Top Cap.

For much of Bitcoin’s history, Top Cap has correctly predicted the Bitcoin price high’s of the major cycles where price has gone parabolic due to market euphoria and FOMO (fear of missing out).

Top Cap was created by @woonomic.

Terminal Price

This is an on-chain indicator. That means it uses data from the Bitcoin blockchain to identify actual user behavior and activity.

Before Terminal price is calculated, it is first necessary to calculate Transferred Price. Transferred price takes the sum of Coin Days Destroyed and divides it by the existing supply of bitcoin and the time it has been in circulation. The value of Transferred Price is then multiplied by 21. Remember that there can only ever be 21 million bitcoin mined.

This creates a 'terminal' value as the supply is all mined, a kind of reverse supply adjustment. Instead of heavily weighting later behavior, it normalizes historical behavior to today. By normalizing by 21, a terminal value is created.

This Terminal Price has historically been very effective at forecasting the tops of Bitcoin price cycles. Terminal Price was created by @_checkmatey_.

Balanced Price

This is an on-chain indicator used for Bitcoin price prediction at the bear market lows. This means that it is trying to identify the lowest price that Bitcoin may drop to in the future.

It uses inputs that we have already explained in the sections above.

It is calculated by subtracting Transferred Price from Realized Price.

Balanced price was created by David Puell.

CVDD

CVDD stands for Cumulative Value Coin Days Destroyed.

Coin Days Destroyed is a term used for bitcoin to identify a value of sorts to UTXO’s (unspent transaction outputs). You can learn more about UTXO’s here. They can be thought of as coins moving between wallets.

When coins are sent between wallets, the transaction has:

a USD value
plus, it also destroys a time value in terms of how long the original investor held their coins

That value is Coin Days Destroyed (CDD).

CVDD tracks the cumulative sum of this value-time destruction as coins move from old hands into new hands as a ratio of the market age. It is then multiplied by 6 million, which is a somewhat arbitrary number as it is not linked to any relevant Bitcoin data.

The result is that it has historically correctly forecasted the major lows of Bitcoins price with good accuracy.

CVDD was created by @woonomic.

Video Explainer

Click me to watch video!

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Indicator Overview

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Bitcoin: Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL)

About Bitcoin: Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL)

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