Has The AI Trade Left Bitcoin Behind?

For years, Bitcoin and AIQ, the biggest AI ETF globally, moved almost in tandem, with a 2-year correlation of about 0.95. That changed around this time last year, when AI did very well and Bitcoin didn't, and the correlation is now -0.53. Has the AI trade taken the capital that could have rotated into Bitcoin, or can the two coexist?

 

What we found:

• Bitcoin has fallen behind Global M2's growth but has led Global M2's peaks and troughs by a median of 44.5 days.
• Bitcoin's $1.61 trillion is 0.29% of global capital, against $40.85 trillion for the companies in AIQ.
• ETF flows track Bitcoin's 28-day return at +0.78, and its supply sensitivity sits at 5.56x.
• Agent payments on x402 have reached 254.7 million, and IDC projects 2.45 billion active AI agents by 2030.
• US output per hour is up 109% since 1989, and the top 0.1%'s share of US wealth has climbed to 15.0%.

 

Out Of Step

Bitcoin's annual return has tracked Global M2 closely for years, but since late 2025 it has fallen behind, even with the money printers running. I don't think that relationship is broken. Bitcoin just isn't following for now.

 

Figure 1: Bitcoin's annual return sits below Global M2's annual growth through 2026.

 

Every time Bitcoin has closed a gap like this, a long stretch of outperformance has followed. Bitcoin also turns first, leading Global M2's peaks and troughs by a median of 44.5 days. It's the canary in the coal mine, and I think that's why it has rallied over 50% from its lows as people are anticipating the pivot.

 

Room To Grow

When that pivot comes, the opportunity is monumental. At $1.61 trillion, Bitcoin is just 0.29% of an estimated $554 trillion in global capital, down 26.7% on the year.

 

Figure 2: The companies in AIQ are worth $40.85 trillion against Bitcoin's $1.61 trillion.

 

That's a drop in the bucket next to the $2.67 trillion forecast for AI spending in 2026, up 49.5% year on year. OpenAI and Anthropic are heading for a combined valuation of around $3 trillion, nearly twice Bitcoin's size, and the companies in AIQ are worth $40.85 trillion, over 25 times as much. That's the pool of capital that could rotate into Bitcoin.

 

Strength Attracts Strength

It wouldn't take much of that capital, either. A dollar into Bitcoin adds more than a dollar to its market cap, because so much supply sits with long-term holders who aren't selling. Their share of supply puts Bitcoin's supply sensitivity at 5.56x, down from a recent peak of 6.81x, and 28-day ETF flows track Bitcoin's 28-day return at +0.78.

 

Figure 3: ETF flows track Bitcoin's 28-day return at +0.78 as supply sensitivity eases to 5.56x.

 

Every time supply sensitivity has peaked, when everyone thinks Bitcoin is dead, it hasn't taken much to start a rally. ETF buyers won't buy these lows: like equity ETF and GLD buyers, they buy strength and sell weakness. Once Bitcoin starts pulling in capital, the snowball becomes an avalanche.

 

Agents Pay In Crypto

AI agents have taken off in a way I think would have surprised even the most bullish in AI. Agent payments on the x402 protocol have reached 254.7 million, from close to zero a year ago, and 2026's 139 million already beat 2025's total by 20%.

 

Figure 4: Cumulative agent payments on x402 climb to 254.7 million by October 2026.

 

The x402 protocol settles in crypto, mostly stablecoins for now, and L402 does the same for Bitcoin over Lightning. IDC projects active AI agents rising from 31 million in 2025 to 2.45 billion by 2030, about 79 times as many, so a huge opportunity for Bitcoin.

 

Hard Assets Win

AI is lifting productivity too. US output per hour is up 109% since 1989, and median annual growth has hit 2.48% since ChatGPT's 2022 launch, against 1.72% before the public web and 1.70% in the web era.

 

Figure 5: US output per hour has risen 109% since 1989 as the top 0.1%'s wealth share hits 15.0%.

 

That wealth hasn't been shared equally: the top 0.1%'s share of US wealth has climbed from 8.6% to 15.0% over the same period. They hold hard, scarce assets, such as AI stocks, gold, real estate and, increasingly, Bitcoin. As AI reshapes the economy, I think that's the only real way to keep up.

 

Seeing Through The Noise

Priced in AIQ, Bitcoin has made nothing but higher highs and higher lows since bottoming in late June, despite the world's biggest crypto hack at Binance, ETF outflows and talk of collapse. For me, investors are seeing through the noise to the inevitable Fed pivot. AI and Bitcoin can coexist, and when capital rotates, it won't take much to send Bitcoin exponentially higher.

 

Subscribe to the Look Into Bitcoin Substack for more research throughout the week.

 

For more on this, watch our recent YouTube video here:

Will the AI Boom Spill Over Into Bitcoin?

 

Have a lovely weekend, and I'll see you in the next one!

@MattCrosbyPro

Research Director