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Bitcoin: The Puell Multiple


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Indicator Overview
This metric looks at the supply side of Bitcoin's economy - bitcoin miners and their revenue.

It explores market cycles from a mining revenue perspective. Bitcoin miners are sometimes referred to as compulsory sellers due to their need to cover fixed costs of mining hardware in a market where price is extremely volatile. The revenue they generate can therefore influence price over time.

The Puell Multiple is calculated by dividing the daily issuance value of bitcoins (in USD) by the 365-day moving average of daily issuance value.

How It Can Be Used
There are periods of time where the value of bitcoins being mined and entering the ecosystem is too great or too little relative to historical norms.

Understanding these periods of time can be beneficial to the strategic Bitcoin investor.

The chart above highlights periods where the value of Bitcoin's issued on a daily basis has historically been extremely low (Puell Multiple entering green box), which produced outsized returns for Bitcoin investors who bought Bitcoin here. It also shows periods where the daily issuance value was extremely high (Puell Multiple entering red box), providing advantageous profit-taking for Bitcoin investors who sold here.

Bitcoin Price Prediction Using This Tool

The Puell Multiple uses the upper red band on the chart to show when miner revenues in USD terms are significantly higher than historical norms (in this case the 365-day moving average). Over the majority of Bitcoins’ existence, these periods have been when the price of $BTC has also reached its major highs. So the Puell Multiple can be a useful Bitcoin forecasting tool to identify based on this metric whether price is too high and needs to drop (when the indicator is in the red zone), or whether it is too low and may need to bounce (indicator is in the green zone).

Created By
David Puell
Date Created

March 2019

Fall Further Down The Rabbit Hole

You can learn more about the Puell Multiple in this article written by @cryptopoiesis. Medium article: The Puell Multiple

Similar Live Charts That You May Find Useful

The Puell Multiple is able to identify when the price of Bitcoin is unsustainably high or low by using the upper red band and the lower green band. Charts on this site that use a similar approach include MVRV Z-Score, RHODL Ratio and Reserve Risk.

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Miner Revenue (Total) screenshot
Miner Revenue (Total)

Total Bitcoin miner revenue: fees + mining reward.

Bitcoin Miner Difficulty screenshot
Bitcoin Miner Difficulty

Changes in Bitcoin mining difficulty over time.

Miner Revenue (Fees vs Rewards) screenshot
Miner Revenue (Fees vs Rewards)

Percentage comparison of Bitcoin miner revenues earned from fees and mining rewards.

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